What Falling Birth Rates Mean for Preschools and Childcare Centers

If you’re running a preschool or childcare center, you’ve probably felt it already. Enrollment is harder to fill. Tours aren’t converting like they used to. There are more open spots, even though you’ve done everything right. 

You’ve polished your website, followed up with families, hired good teachers, and still, you’re wondering: Where did the children go?

You’re not alone.

In the past few months, I’ve spoken with directors from across the country. One used to keep a waiting list two years long. Today, she’s running Facebook ads just to fill her toddler's room. Another told me that for the first time in twenty years, she’s considering closing a classroom because there aren’t enough students to make it sustainable.

If that sounds familiar, take a breath. This is not about your program. It’s not your leadership. The truth is, there really are fewer young children than there were ten years ago.

And that changes everything.

Because when the number of children in your community shrinks, every open seat matters more. Every relationship matters more. And every decision about how you run your school — from the way you market to the way you communicate with families — carries more weight.

So where did the children go? And what can we do about it?

Let’s take a closer look.

The Primary Driver of Low Enrollments: Fewer Children

The simplest answer is this: there just aren’t as many children being born.

A recent EdSurge article laid it out clearly. In 2007, the U.S. fertility rate was about 2.1 — just enough for each generation to replace itself. Today, it’s closer to 1.6. That may not sound like much, but it’s the lowest in our history. And in practical terms, it means millions of children who were never born… and who will never show up.

The reasons are complex. Families are waiting longer to have children. Many are having fewer than they once expected. The cost of living is higher, especially housing and healthcare. Student debt weighs heavily on young parents. For some, the dream of raising three or four kids has quietly become one or two.

And this isn’t a short-term dip. It’s not like the ups and downs we saw in past decades. This is a structural change. The “missing babies” from five years ago are today’s missing preschoolers. And in five years, they’ll be the missing elementary students.

For those of us in early childhood, this is the water we’re swimming in. The pool of children is smaller — and that reality shapes everything else.

The Amplifying Factors of Low Enrollments

Falling birth rates are the big driver. But they’re not the only reason enrollments are harder to fill. Several other forces are adding pressure:

1. Homeschooling is growing

More families are choosing homeschooling than ever before. Some began during the pandemic and decided to stick with it. Others want more flexibility or feel they can create the environment they want at home. Whatever the reason, the trend is real — and every family that homeschools is one less in the preschool pipeline.

2. Public Pre-K is expanding

In many states, free or low-cost Pre-K programs are opening their doors to three- and four-year-olds. That sounds like good news for families, but research suggests that it creates tough competition for private programs. When high-quality care is available at no cost, many families will choose it. This is especially true in communities where incomes are tight.

3. Families under strain

The economic realities are heavy. Housing costs, healthcare bills, and everyday expenses leave many families stretched thin. Some delay enrolling in preschool to save money. Others patch together care from grandparents or neighbors. For schools, that means longer wait times before children arrive — and fewer families able to commit for the long haul.

4. Work patterns are shifting

The world of work looks different than it did even ten years ago. Gig jobs, hybrid roles, and irregular schedules are now common. Families with shifting work hours often find that traditional preschool models don’t fit their needs. This doesn’t mean they don’t value early education. It means our schedules and offerings sometimes don’t line up with their reality.

5. Staffing is tight

Even when families want to enroll, many schools can’t open all the classrooms they’d like to. Teacher shortages are a major bottleneck. Low pay, burnout, and high turnover make it hard to keep classrooms fully staffed. Without enough qualified teachers, directors face the painful choice of turning families away — which makes enrollment challenges even sharper.

Fewer children to begin with. More competition from new models. Families under pressure. Staff stretched thin. For early childhood programs, especially private ones, this is the environment we are now working with.

What Preschool Leaders Can Do About It

We can’t change national birth rates. But we can decide how we respond. Here are the steps I believe matter most right now:

1. Start enrolling younger children

If you don’t already have an infant or toddler program, it’s time to think about it. Families who start with you earlier usually stay longer. They form habits. They form relationships. By the time their child is three or four, they’re not looking around anymore — they’re already settled with you.

One school I visited recently had always begun at age three. Enrollment was slipping. They added a toddler room with just six children. Within a year, every one of those families signed up for preschool as well. That simple step gave them stability for the next three years.

Starting younger doesn’t mean building a huge new program overnight. It can mean adding a small room, adjusting ratios, or even partnering with another provider. The point is simple: the earlier families come through your doors, the less likely you are to lose them later.

2. Refine your messaging

Most schools describe themselves with the same words: nurturing, high-quality, loving environment. But parents hear that everywhere. It doesn’t help them see what makes you different.

You need to show it.

• Instead of saying “personalized learning,” tell parents: “We use AI tools to customize learning plans based on children’s progress and developmental milestones.”
  
• Instead of “strong communication,” say: “You’ll never wonder what your child ate for lunch — it’s in your inbox before nap time.”
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These small but concrete promises make your program real. They give families something to picture. And they show you understand what matters most to them: connection, trust, and seeing their child grow.

It also helps to let your values shine through stories. Share a quick moment on your website or in a tour: “This morning, Anna spent 20 minutes carefully arranging flowers in a vase. Nobody interrupted her. We believe children deserve that kind of focus.”

That’s not marketing fluff. That’s who you are. And when you put it into words, families can feel it.

3. Market consistently

Marketing is something childcares and schools only think about when enrollments drop. 

Most childcare programs either rely on word-of-mouth or treat marketing activities as an afterthought. 

Once the numbers drop, a few ads go up. A few tours get scheduled. Then, when enrollment looks steady again, it stops. That on-and-off rhythm doesn’t work anymore. Families today make decisions quickly. They search online. They skim social media. They want answers fast. If you aren’t visible in those moments, you don’t even get a chance.

Consistent marketing doesn’t have to mean big budgets. It means regular, steady presence.

• Keep your website fresh with photos and updates.
  
• Share candid classroom moments each week.
  
• Join local parent groups online and contribute, not just promote.
  
• Run small, ongoing ads instead of waiting for a crisis.
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And most importantly, follow up right away. A parent who tours three schools will remember the one that calls them back the same day.

4. Build stronger relationships

Staff retention matters as much as recruitment. With fewer children in the community, every family that stays is gold.

That means we can’t take relationships for granted. They don’t just “happen.” They need to be built and nurtured.

• Check in after the tour. Ask how they felt.
  
• Send a handwritten thank-you.
  
• Host small events where parents can connect with each other.
  
• Celebrate milestones — a child learning to tie their shoes, a birthday, the first day without tears.
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These little touches go far. They show families that their child is seen and valued. And when families feel connected, they don’t leave. They talk about you to others. They become your best ambassadors.

5. Use better systems

Here’s what I see almost everywhere I go: directors drowning in paperwork. Spreadsheets for attendance. Binders for allergies. Folders for billing. Emails are scattered everywhere.

It’s exhausting. And it steals time from what matters most.

We can’t keep running schools this way. The world is too complex now. Licensing demands more documentation. Families expect faster communication. Staff need tools that lighten their load, not add to it.

This goes to show why childcare management software isn’t a luxury. It’s survival.

The best childcare management software will save you hours every week. It will let your teachers log observations and daily notes with just a few taps. It will generate reports for licensing agencies in seconds. It will help you track enrollment, billing, immunizations, and even marketing leads. And it will give your families the transparency and communication they crave.

If you’re still piecing together four or five disconnected tools, or spending evenings on documentation, it’s time to take a serious look at systems built specifically for early childhood education.

The time you save on admin is time you can invest in your staff, your families, and your school community.

6. Think long-term

It’s tempting to focus only on next month’s roster. We all need tuition dollars to keep the lights on. But survival thinking alone won’t carry us through this shift.

We need to build schools that last. That means culture. That means staff who stay because they feel supported. That means families who tell their neighbors, “This is the school you want.”

Long-term thinking shows up in small ways:

• Training teachers instead of churning through new hires.
  
• Building a brand that parents recognize in the community.
  
• Keeping your values steady, even when times are tough.
  
  

When you think beyond the next enrollment cycle, you create stability. And stability is what carries schools through seasons of change.

The truth is, fewer children means each one matters even more. The families who walk through your doors are choosing you in a crowded, confusing, and changing landscape. When they choose your program, they’re trusting you with their most precious treasure.

That’s not a burden—it’s a privilege.

Let’s rise to meet this moment with creativity, clarity, and connection. Let’s build schools that families are proud to be part of—and that we’re proud to lead.

If you’re feeling overwhelmed, you’re not alone. But you’re not stuck, either. With the right tools, the right message, and a renewed commitment to what really matters, your school can not only survive—but thrive.

Closing Thoughts

Fewer children and more competition. 

It’s easy to feel like the odds are stacked against us. And in some ways, they are. The landscape of early childhood education is changing, but that doesn’t mean we’re powerless… Far from it.

Every challenge is also an invitation. To get clearer about who we are. To get sharper about how we tell our story. To get stronger in the relationships we build with families and staff. To use tools that free us from paperwork so we can focus on what really matters.

The truth is, fewer children means each one matters even more. The families who walk through your doors are choosing you in a crowded, confusing, and changing landscape. When they choose your program, they’re trusting you with their most precious treasure.

That’s not a burden—it’s a privilege.

Early childhood educators are some of the most resourceful, creative, and resilient people I know. We have always found ways to make things work, even in the hardest circumstances.

So let’s rise to this moment with clarity, courage, and care. Let’s build schools that families are proud to be part of — and that we are proud to lead.

Reference:

EdSurge article: https://www.edsurge.com/news/2025-07-31-lower-birth-rates-could-cause-enrollment-issues-for-schools