Where have all the four-year-olds gone?
America is in a childcare affordability crunch. Families feel it every month. Schools feel it every payroll cycle. Early childhood education costs real money to do well, and most private programs run on thin margins even in good years.
Now California is changing the market at scale.
In the 2025–26 school year, Transitional Kindergarten (TK) becomes available to all four-year-olds in California through the public K–12 system. It is free to families and backed by major state funding. The goal is understandable: ease the cost burden and expand access. But when a free option grows fast inside a well-funded public system, it does not just add seats. It reshapes demand.
If you run a Montessori school, a private preschool, or a community-based early childhood program, you are not reading this as policy theory. You are reading it as enrollment, staffing, and survival.
What Is Universal Transitional Kindergarten (UTK) In California?
Transitional Kindergarten (TK) started as a bridge year for children who were too young for kindergarten after birthdate cutoff changes. Over time, California expanded TK eligibility.
Now, under Universal TK (UTK), every four-year-old becomes eligible in 2025–26. TK sits inside public schools, uses public-school funding, and becomes the default “free preschool year” for many families.
Two things matter for leaders:
- It changes what families compare you against. “Private preschool” is no longer just competing with other preschools. It competes with “free.”
- It moves four-year-olds into a system that does not serve infants and toddlers in the same way private providers do.
Why California’s UTK Expansion Is Disrupting Private Preschools
Families make rational choices. If they can save a full year of tuition, many will take it.
When four-year-olds shift into TK, private programs see:
- fewer enrollments in the 4-year-old classroom
- less predictable re-enrollment for 3-year-olds who “plan to move to TK”
- more pressure to discount or offer promotions just to stay full
This is not a small ripple. Four-year-olds often anchor stability in private programs. When they leave, the math changes quickly.
The Business Model Most Families Don’t See: Four-Year-Olds Often Subsidize 0–3
Most parents do not see the unit economics behind childcare. But directors live it.
Infants and toddlers cost more to serve because:
- ratios are lower
- staffing is heavier
- turnover is more expensive
- licensing requirements can be stricter
Four-year-olds still need skilled adults, but they often cost less per child to operate than infant rooms. In many private programs, the 4-year-old class quietly creates the margin that helps keep infant and toddler rooms open.
So when TK pulls the four-year-olds out, the program does not just lose revenue. It can lose the part of the model that kept the whole program balanced.
That is why a “free preschool year” can unintentionally reduce childcare capacity for the youngest children.
What The Data And Reporting Show So Far
You do not have to guess what this looks like. It is already showing up in reporting and early analyses.
Enrollment shifts are real, and participation varies by district
A major point leaders should watch: UTK may be “universal,” but participation differs by district and population. Some areas adopt early and fast. Others lag. That creates uneven market shock, depending on where your school operates.
Closures and capacity loss are showing up in big metros
Reports have highlighted private and community-based programs closing or shrinking as 4-year-olds leave for TK. When a preschool closes, the community often loses more than one classroom. It can lose a chunk of the infant and toddler supply, too.
Equity patterns are complicated
Several reports raise the concern that growth in TK enrollment has often been stronger in wealthier areas, while community-based preschool capacity shrinks in lower-income neighborhoods. Leaders should care about this for two reasons:
- it affects who stays in private programs
- it affects the long-term childcare ecosystem that families rely on
The “Pre-K Pivot” Problem: Why Switching To Infants And Toddlers Is Hard
When four-year-olds disappear, a common idea is: “We’ll pivot younger.”
In practice, that pivot is tough.
Here is what stands in the way:
- Staffing reality: You need more adults per child. That means recruiting, training, and paying enough to retain.
- Facility constraints: Infant and toddler rooms require different setups (sleep areas, diapering stations, safe separation).
- Licensing and compliance: Requirements can change based on ages served.
- Cash flow risk: You spend first, then earn later. If you cannot stay full, you bleed.
A rushed pivot can backfire. The youngest children need stability most. If you expand 0–3 without the ability to retain strong caregivers, quality suffers.
The Hidden Gap: TK Isn’t Always “Workable” For Working Families
TK is free, but “free” does not always mean “solves childcare.”
Common gaps:
- TK often follows a school-day schedule, not a full workday.
- Coverage during school breaks and summer varies widely.
- Wraparound care depends on district capacity and local offerings.
This is where private schools can still be essential.
You do not have to beat free on price. You have to win on what families still need: reliable coverage that lets parents keep their jobs.
What Private And Montessori Schools Can Do Next
This is the survival plan. It is not about complaining. It is about adapting with clarity.
Build A TK Wraparound Program That Parents Will Pay For
If TK captures the core school-day hours, your opportunity sits around it:
- before-care
- aftercare
- school breaks
- summer
But do not make it feel like storage. Design it as a real program:
- prepared environments
- purposeful outdoor time
- practical life
- art, music, movement
- consistent adults who stay
Wraparound can become your new “anchor offering.”
Make Your Schedule The Advantage
Spell it out clearly:
- exact hours
- exact calendar
- exact holiday coverage
- summer plan
Families do not pay for childcare philosophy alone. They pay for a program that works with real life.
Expand 0–3 Only With Real Unit Economics
Do not “add infants” because enrollment fell. Add infants only if the math supports quality.
Build a simple pro forma that includes:
- wages and benefits that keep good staff
- paid planning time
- recruitment and onboarding
- realistic turnover
- supplies and facility changes
If you cannot fund stability, pause. Quality drops fastest when staff churn rises.
Partner With Districts Before You Get Squeezed Out
Districts need partners for:
- aftercare capacity
- break coverage
- enrichment
- transportation solutions in some areas
Approach districts with a clear offer:
- What you can provide
- The hours and calendar you can cover
- How families enroll
- How funding or fees would work
Shift the story from “we are being replaced” to “we are part of the community’s childcare infrastructure.”
Rebuild Your Value Proposition In Parent Language
Parents will still choose private programs when they understand what they get.
Say it plainly:
- continuity of relationships
- calm, consistent routines
- independence and self-regulation are built daily
- mixed-age community benefits
- deep social-emotional support
If you are Montessori, keep Montessori. Just translate it into the parent language. Make it specific and observable.
Run Scenario Plans For Four-Year-Old Volatility
Assume volatility is permanent.
Run scenarios:
- What if 4-year-old enrollment drops 20%?
- 35%?
- 50%?
Decide in advance:
- What costs can flex without harming quality
- What rooms can be repurposed?
- What staffing shifts are possible
- What programs become your new “core”
This belongs in strategic planning, not just marketing.
What Policymakers Need To Get Right
Leaders should advocate for ecosystem design, not nostalgia.
If the public system serves four-year-olds, the state still needs to protect:
- infant and toddler supply
- workforce stability
- wraparound capacity
- partnerships that keep community providers viable
A mixed ecosystem gives families real choice. It also prevents the unintended consequence of shrinking 0–3 capacity while celebrating “universal preschool.”
